Potential investments

The market situation is neither good nor bad.

You can't say the market or economy is bad but you can't say it's good either.

US is continuing its QE, China is struggling to maintain the momentum of its economy to about 6.5% to 7% growth inGDP.

I would recommend that the first rule is avoid losing of your principle, and the second rule is not to forget rule 1. <-- Haha, you are right, these are from Buffett. I recommend the following five categories of shares, let's hope them perform well: 1. Software or application companies, like games manufacturer, iOS and android apps, big data analysis etc. 2. the leader of industries. Particularly, the leader who has grasped firmly the pricing of the industry. 3. growth shares, I mean the annual l growth exceeds 20% and for a few years 4. some "safe?" shares like public utilities in the recession 5. health care services and drug manufacturers providers What is your view? I am waiting for the better prices to buy some of them, how do you think? Please comment and teach me. Good luck.

Market outlook -- figures

HSI 半日的表現如下：

恒生指數 21,300.65 139.15 國企指數 9,165.52 74.67 上證指數 3,035.09 1.43
幾個指數都向上，表現唔錯。


隔晚美股造好，道指九個月來首次重上萬八點，帶動亞太股市上升，

日股半日大幅反彈逾500點，但中港股市相對落後，只是上升了百多點。

恒指高開276點，報21438點屬半日高，其後未能升穿上周造出的21511點的逾三個月高位，升勢漸漸回落，升幅一度收窄至100點見21261點暫時低。恒指中午收報21286點，升124點或0.6%，大市成交額337.94億元。

國企指數中午收報9156點，升65點或0.7%。

A股半日反覆靠穩，滬指半日升0.05%；深指升0.07%。

藍籌金融股領漲，當中滙控(00005)曾見50.7元逾一個月高，半日升2.7%為表現最好藍籌；本周將公布季績的友邦(01299)升1%；工行(01398)升1.2%；建行(00939)升0.8%。「三桶油」稍為回升，半日漲1%至1.9%。濠賭股亦向上，金沙(01928)升1.7%；銀娛(00027)升1.4%。相反重磅股騰訊(00700)和中移動(00941)跌1.2%和0.7%。

焦點板塊
資源股：多股跑出，大宗商品龍頭嘉能可(00805)升3.1%；江西銅(00358)升2%；中國忠旺(01333)升2%。鋼鐵股見支持，重慶鋼鐵(01053)簽訂立來料加工協議，半日急升6.6%；馬鋼(00323)升2.8%；鞍鋼(00347)升2.2%。

食品及飲品製造股：另一彈出板塊，藍籌蒙牛(02319)升1.6%；康師傅(00322)升2.1%。另外雅士利國際(01230)曾升12%，半日升7.5%；中糧控股(00606)升5.6%；中國食品(00506)升2.6%。

焦點股份
廣汽(02238)：發盈喜料首季多賺逾兩倍，股價曾見9.35元逾一年高，半日升3.2%報8.98元，半日成交額2.28億元為逾四個月來最活躍。

御泰中彩(00555)：停牌逾九個月後，今早復牌，股價裂口低開50.5%，曾跌55.7%見0.195元，半日收報0.255元跌42%，成交額達4.18億元。集團去年6月24日遭沽空機構匿名分析(Anonymous Analytics)指向市場作出虛假陳述，當日中途停牌，昨日發出澄清公告。

今日個市其實好一般，但又買唔到貨，哈哈，我有的是耐性。因為我想要的都是好貨，要有心機等先得架，不放棄。

來投資啦喂！！！！

China's economy

剛在綱上看到大唐發電首季發電量按年跌9.42%的消息。如下：

大唐發電(00991)公布，該集團第一季已累計完成發電量約359.53億千瓦時，按年減少約9.42%；累計完成上網電量約340.21億千瓦時，減少約9.28%。

受全國電力供需總體寬鬆以及該集團火電機組所在區域電網利用小時下降的影響，火電機組發電量按年降低約13.79%，上網電量降低約13.89%。

因該集團水電機組總來水量增加等因素的影響，水電機組發電量按年增加42.42%，上網電量增加42.94%；此外，亦因風電機組容量增加及所在區域平均風速提高等因素影響，風電機組發電量加6.7%，上網電量增加6.68%。

另外，因光伏發電機組容量增加，光伏機組發電量按年增加約10.94%，上網電量則增加11.41%。

其實我無買這隻股票，我亦住打算睇佢。但係弓中弓竹水電量就和經濟有很大的關係。

試想想，做生意是要打開門的，電弔就更加是打開口做生意的必然成本。辦公室要開燈，工廠又要運作，在在需要電這東西，所以有生意做就要鶢電，用更多的電。

現在991 的表現清楚的告訴了我們，經濟不是很有活力，經濟成長率和活動也不活躍。

小心小心。

但有危才有機，繼續賺大錢！YEAH！！！

2628 的季績

今天大和發表了對了2628 和 2601 的報告。

詳情是如下的：

大和降國壽評級 料首季盈利大跌甚至虧損

大和資本 中國人壽(02628)

評級：跑贏大市-> 持有

目標價：18元->20元(較上日收報19.74元，潛在升幅1.3%)

中資券商股陸續公布第一季業績，大和資本發表報告，將中國人壽評級由「跑贏大市」下調至「持有」，目標價剛上調11%至20元，預期公司首季純利大跌，甚至有機會錄得虧損。

大和表示，國壽淨投資收益率面對壓力，下調評級以反映預期短期純利存在風險，將未來兩年純利預測下調超過兩成。另外，該行因A股近期復蘇，上調國壽今年盈利預測。

另外，大和資本重申中國太保(02601)「買入」評級，目標價40元不變，維持行業首選。太保首季壽險保費收入和財險收入按年分別增38.1%及6%，太和指保費增長具高質素，又認為收購安信農保帶來協同效益。

現時 2628 的造價大約是19 個幾，和大和的目標價是一樣的，無什麼吸引之處，但如果佢回到17 或是 18元月的話，便有值搏的理由，笗意住吧。

以及 2601 及 2628 的資料作比較，我是較為喜歡 2628 的，希望它不要令我跌眼鏡啒。

大家一起投資吧！！！

你又有什麼心水？？？？

Kurt Lewin's three step model of change -- elaborated

It is quite plain and natural to cite Lewin's work when we are discussing change management.

In the original version, Lewin broke the change process down into three phrases, i.e. the unfreeze, move and refreeze. Today's blog illustrates this model with more details. Don't miss.

The three steps model can be broken down and be described as a seven steps model like this:

(1) Diagnose the problem -- unfreeze

(2) assess the motivation and capacity for change -- unfreeze

(3) Assess the motivation, resources and commitment of change agent -- unfreeze

(4)choose progressive change object and develop to-do lists and strategy -- move

(5) select and clarify the role and responsibilities of the change agent -- move

(6) uphold change through communication, coordination and feedback -- refreeze

(7) progressively let go of the helping relationship where the change agents withdraw their responsibilities and the change is integrated into the culture of the organization -- refreeze

You may see that this seven steps model is only a detailed version of Lewin's three steps model of change, no surprise. But it can act as a checklist of actions in the change process.

I will keep the above materials for future reference, are you a potential change agent in your organization? Equip yourself now la~

Good luck and healthy!

從F-Score尋質優股

This post is related to the application of the Piotroski F-Score to pick up some potential investments.

First, we should list all the criteria:

(1) ROA > 0

(2) Cash flow from operation, CFO, >0

(3) ROA increasing

(4) CFO > NI

(5) LT debt to total asset decreasing

(6) current ratio increasing

(7) No share outstanding increasing

(8) gross margin increasing

(9) Asset turnover increasing.

Basing on these criteria, A list of high F-score shares are filtered out:

-- 0014

-- 0468

-- 0551

-- 1044

-- 1347

-- 1883

-- 1968

-- 2314

-- 2331

These shares scored 8 or above in the tests.

Amongst these, I personally like the 14 and 2314 most. Maybe 2331 will have a rebound this year, but i have reservation on it

How about you?

Let's review the performance a year later.

Vitasoy -- 345

it has been for some time since my previous posting in this blog.

The topic of today is some investment ideas around the share, 345 the Vita Soy, enjoy ^_^.

Vitasoy is a established local brand. It is one of the most famous local brands. It sells vitasoy, lemon tea, vita water, DoFu etc using an umbrella of a wide range of different brands.

Its trading PE is nearly 40 times, and its book to market value is about 8 times. Basing on these figures, 345 is expensive, super expensive.

I like this local brand a lot and i buy its products frequently. I have faith on it, So I keep an eye on it for some possible lower prices to buy in. I am a customer of 345 already. When will I become a shareholder in the near future?

Vitasoy has invested some monies in mainland China. Those are manufacturing factory facilities.

345 wishes to explore the mainland market as well.

In the first half of this FY, the net profits of 345 rose 40%. The company explained that the rise was partly resulted form the dropping raw materials costs,

As an unknown in the future, 345 can't rely on dropping material prices to support the profits, the raw material prices may rebound and squeeze the profit margin in the coming half of the FY, who knows!! In addition, the capital expenditure in the latter half 2015/16 will double that of the former half 2016.

However, the CFO told the media that the group had sold some non core assets to increase the cash level of the company. I believe it has no need to increase debt or to do share placing in the near future.

I will keep an eye on this company continuously, how about you?

Today, 345's market price is HKD 14.58.

Good share but too expensive.

You may also read other article about 345 in this blog. Just go to the directory and search.