有大家樂就梗係有大快活啦

早幾日寫了大家樂的業績,咁今日就梗係寫埋孖寶的另外一寶啦.


一句總鮚: 大快活全年多賺近四成 連特別息派1元

大快活(00052)宣布，截至6月底止，全年純利錄得2.01億元，按年增加39.46%，每股盈利158.62仙，派末期息每股55仙，另慶祝公司上市25周年，派特別息每股45仙，即每股合共派1元。

全年合共分派每股股息140仙，按年增加75%。

撇除出售持有待售的非流動資產收益淨額，溢利為1.891億元，增加31.3%。

期內，收入增加8.16%至24.28億元。毛利率上升1個百分點至15.9%。

香港業務方面，集團同店銷售上升約5%。回顧年內，在香港合共開設13間新店，未來將繼續加強香港的業務網絡。香港餐廳業務期內分部溢利為2.296億元，按年增長16.75%；收入22.85億元，按年增長10.44%。

內地市場方面，集團已轉虧為盈，中國餐廳業務扭虧為盈賺207萬元，前一年度錄得820.7萬虧損。若以人民幣計算，同店銷售亦上升約5%。業務的整合及與香港業務接軌的工作亦已完成。

回顧期內，集團整體開設15間新分店，包括在香港開設14間分店及在內地開設1間分店。截至6月底止，集團於香港合共經營125間店舖，包括119間快餐店及6間特色餐廳，另於內地經營10間店舖。

大家槳的內地業務是蝕本的, 而大快活是賺錢的, 這是一個重要的分別.

大快活已經不再是跟住大家樂走的影子股票,他有自己的強弱項,有屲己的生意模式... 有自己的一套. 似乎我要買埋52 了. 但它現在基數不低, 還可以保持這個增長的速度嗎?

呢點真係好難論定.

努力努力!!!!

341 又公布業績

341 對上一次公布的業績令我好失望, 今次又點呢?

答案係: 去年賺5億跌11% 連特息派0.98元

大家樂內地縮舖 港今年勁開店

放大圖片 / 顯示原圖
大家樂（00341）去年度純利跌逾一成，但適逢慶祝上市30周年，決定增加末期息，另派發特別息，連末期息合共0.98元。大家樂表示，本港經濟增長放緩，市民會增加快餐的花費，今年度在香港新增50至60間店舖；反而中國業務不敵競爭，將全線關閉內地意粉屋，未來拓展中國市場會更審慎。

又是一間在大陸發展碰壁的例子. 在最後,仍然是回到香港這個大本營做生意.

希望佢咁做法可以止血啦, 大陸人好多都未接受到Spaghetti House 的食物和單價..

努力, 我會繼續支持你的!!

823 releases the most updated performance

In the afternoon, the Link reveals its annual performance for the period ended 31.3.2016.

The outlook is good and the key financial indicators are encouraging and improving.

First of all,

領展全年可分派總額增長10.5

領展(00823)公布，截至3月底止全年業績，期內可分派總額為46.34億元，按年增長10.54%。其中，可分派收入總額為45.67億元，按年增長12.38%，酌情分派為6700萬元，按年下跌47.66%。

期內，收益為87.4億元，按年增長13.17%，其中物業收入淨額65.13億元，按年增長14.89%。

每基金單位末期分派107.19港仙，連同中期分派98.99港仙，全年度每基金單位分派增加12.8%至206.18仙。

根據基金單位於2016年3月31日的收市價46元計算，每基金單位分派總額的分派回報率為4.5%。

投資物業組合，包括發展中物業及年內於中國內地收購之物業的估值持續改善，達到1606.72億元，較去年3月底增加16.1%。每基金單位資產淨值按年增長10.2%至56.79元。

See? the overall figures are very good.


領展零售物業租金收入增6.7%


領展(00823)公布於3月底止年度，香港物業組合收益總額增加7.72%至83.19億元，包括零售物業租金收入增長6.72%至60.95億元、停車場租金收入增長11.47%至18.46億元，其他物業相關收益增長6.18%至3.78億元。

年度內，領展分別於去年4月1日及8月31日完成收購北京歐美滙購物中心及上海企業天地1號及2號。該等新收購之中國內地物業為集團之業績帶來4.21億元收益，以及3.11億元物業收入淨額。

在資產提升方面，領展表示，現正進行11個提升項目，8個項目快將展開，同時亦有逾16個項目正於審視階段，將資產提升計劃伸延至2020年。

領展稱，現正與其合作夥伴南豐發展緊密合作，進行一項位於香港九龍東海濱道的商業發展項目。該物業為頂尖的甲級商業物業，預計將可如期於2019年內落成。

於3月底，集團債務總額增加至270億元，負債比率為由去年同期的11.9%增至16.5%。於3月底，集團的備用流動資金為81億元，當中包括現金及存款5億元及未提取之已承諾融資額76億元。

It is expected that the effects of the acquisitions in mainland will improve the operation figures, And, more rental income is expected from this geographical area. So, it is of no surprise if Link can report an even better performance a few months later.

My main concerns with this share is the gloomy economical conditions and the decreasing trend of retailers' businesses. It may harm the bargaining power of the Link in front of the retailers.

Luckily, the Link is concentrated in shopping arcades for daily commodities instead of luxury products. Also, Link's shopping centers are not deeply involved in the sales of tourists like pharmaceutical shops and other hot products. So, the Link still has good bargaining power I believe.

I expect the share will maintain its relative strength in share price.

今年的加薪建議

信報在今日的今日 18:42 時事脈搏報導：

公務員加薪涉開支89億元

公務員事務局今日提出公務員加薪方案，提出低層及中層薪金級別公務員，都加薪4.68%，高層薪金級別及首長級公務員，加薪為4.19%。按去年經驗，提出方案後緊隨的星期二，行政長官會同行政會議就會通過加薪建議，待立法會財委會批准後，加薪日期將追溯至今年4月1日。

公務員事務局提交立法會文件，顯示今次加薪方案涉及財政開支為89.25億元，已計算公務員、廉署人員、資助機構及輔助部隊的開支。

文件亦列出四大評議會之前的加薪訴求，屬於高評的華員會建議與現時公務員事務局方案一樣，海外公務員協會和高級公務員協會都建議高層加薪5.28%；警評建議劃一加薪5.6%；紀評建議劃一加薪5.68%；一評建議低層加薪4.68%。

今年有超過4% 的加幅，講真我收貨了，出面的環境真的不很好呀。

低級公務員原本只得3% 的加幅，按慣例他們得到提高至中絡公務員的水平，即係指4.68%，不錯了吧。

現在唯一的 UNKNOWN 係唔知拉布拉到幾時才通過D 撥款了。

靠山護航—中銀航空租賃

由中國銀行(03988)分拆的中銀航空租賃(02588)現正招股至5月24日中午截止，按每股42元發售約2.08億股，包括發行1.04億股新股，中行間接全資附屬Sky Splendor將出售1.04億股舊股。7.5%作本港公開發售，並有15%超額配股權，集資約87.45億元，若超額配股權悉數行使，將集資過百億。預計股份於6月1日掛牌上市。

由於發行新股約1.04億股(假設超額配股權並無行使)，歸屬集團的集資淨額為42.46億元，集團擬將所得款項先投放於短期計息存款或貨幣市場工具，長遠將全數用作交付前付款及日後購買飛機以擴大集團自有機隊。

股息方面，集團於上市後擬派付最多佔稅後純利30%的股息。

業務方面，模式可簡化：1.)為買入新型飛機；2.)租出；3.)出售舊機保持平均機齡；4.)將相關收入重新投放買入新型飛機。根據招股書，截至2015年12月31日，集團是總部設於亞洲最大的飛機經營性租賃公司，以及全球第五大飛機經營性租賃公司(按自有飛機價值計算，但不包括已簽署訂單但未交付的飛機)。

集團已引入波音、絲路基金及中投等11名基礎投資者，相關投資者已認購緊隨全球發售完成後已發行股份總數約15.5%或是次發售股份總數約51.7%(假設超額配股權並無獲行使)。

優勢
集團背靠國有大行，贏在起跑線，在母企支持下獲標準普爾及惠譽的A-評級，為航空租賃範疇中最高評級，去年借貸利率低至2%，借貸融資成本是同業中最低。另外，中行向集團提供20億美元已承諾無抵押循環貸款授信，於2022年4月才到期，金額比是次發售還要高，增強財務狀況的說服力。

弱勢
集團出售飛機的業務表現，要視乎當時的市況和所出售飛機的狀態，例如；2013年集團出售飛機收益淨額2795萬美元；2014年為1160萬美元；2015年為3984萬美元，相關表現波動。

機會
在中國和印度兩個人口大國快速增長和中產化下，對飛機出行的需求有增無減，集團去年由亞太(中港澳台除外)市場所得租賃租金收入總額33.2%；中國內地、香港、澳門及台灣共16.7%。反映集團瞄準亞太地區發展，加上是次集資可加強資本實力，或在未來數年交出可觀增長。

威脅
美國聯儲局去年12月進行近十年來首次加息，最近市場對六月加息預期升溫。截至去年底，集團227架自有飛機當中，有107架以固定租金條款出租，其餘120架則採用浮動租金條款，當中浮動租金與美元倫敦銀行同業拆息掛鈎。以固定租金條款出租的交易利潤或受利率上升。集團表示會以沖穩定回報率，惟成效仍待觀察。

小結
本港上市的同類股份只有中國飛機租賃(01848)，以集團定價計算，往績市盈率相若，約11倍左右。中短線而言，中國飛機租賃機隊規模截至今年3月22日僅65架，遠低於集團的227架。長線而言，2022年前中國飛機租賃有107架飛機訂單，集團則有241架。反映集團業務較具規模，現時體系亦相對成熟。

†he IPO is being conducted. How do you feel about this new share? I personally like it very much. Will you apply for the IPO?

This time, the offering price is fixed at 42 dollars per share, which is different from the widely used price range in the IPO process. Do you think it's because the holding company is very optimistic about the offering?

One point that concerns me a bit is the proposed dividend payout ratio is limited to 30% of the net profit. It may be because the industry requires a strong stream of cash (retained earnings) at all time; Or, it is simply the management is not willing to share the profit with the shareholders in the form of dividend. But no matter which is the true intention, a 30% payout ration can only be described as reasonable, but not attractive if I weigh this share against this financial indicator.

I should seriously consider to subscribe for this share.

Hope you will consider this as well.

Let's discuss the IPO, yeah!

The power of FREE! option

Today, I don;t write on investments, I prefer to play a quiz with you instead.

Today let's be honest to yourself and answer my questions. You will see how irrational you are.

The question is : Suppose I offer you a choice between a free 10 Amazon gift certificate and a 20 gift certificate for 7 dollars. Think quickly, and answer yourself, Which would you take?

THINK THINK THINK .....

If you jump for the 10 dollars certificate for FREE!, you would have been like most of the people some scholars tested at one of the malls in Boston.

The irrational point is that the 20 dollars gift certificate for 7 dollars assures a 13 dollars profit while the FREE option delivers 10 dollars. It's clear that go for the 20 dollars certificate is better than the 10 dollar FREE option which only delivers 10 dollars profit.

Can you see the irrational behaviours we have chosen? Or, are you a rational or irrational people? I am irrational haha!

The attractiveness showed that the FREE! option is clearly in its own class of choice. It triggers own irrational mind in this experiment.

I will share again on this topic in the coming few days, that's interesting!

Interesting reading. Enjoy behavioural economics. Make the subject simple, more people will enjoy it.

Do you prefer the 10 dollars profit or the 13 dollars offer?

Cash Cow 6 -- Power Asset

The following news line is worthy noting. It said that because of potential investment opportunities and the subsequent capital needs, 6 is not going to distribute its cash holdings to share holders.

2016年5月13日

電能不派特息 瞄準三收購
電能實業（00006）公布，由於公司準備投資三大項目，包括4月底公布的加拿大投資項目，以及另外兩個投資金額更大的項目，當中一個已進入最後投標階段，故此董事局認為目前應保留資金，決定不派發特別中期股息，視乎將來發展情況再作考慮。電能主席霍建寧表示，預期今年8、9月份會有結果，若最終未能落實，手頭資金沒有投資用途，會派給股東。電能周四（12日）早上最多曾升近1%，中午宣布不派息後股價倒跌，收市報74.9元，挫2.66%。

電能及長江基建（01038）同日舉行股東會，對於不派股息，霍建寧解釋︰「用呢筆錢（去投資），公司股價會向好，比起派股息出來對股東更加有利；睇相佬呃你十年八年，我哋做生意好快有結果。」他指出，電能坐擁大量現金，等了兩年才有投資的機會，由於已經簽署保密協議，故不能透露詳情。身兼電能非執行董事的長建主席李澤鉅則指出，有意投資的第二、第三項目銀碼很大，電能自己負擔不來，所以一定要與系內其他公司聯手才夠錢投資。

料夥長建爭澳洲電網

電能4月底宣布，成立合資公司以約70.65億元收購赫斯基能源（Husky Energy）輸油管道資產65%權益。至於第二、三個項目，早前撰寫報告預告電能會暫緩派息的大和資本市場香港中國公共事業、再生能源及環保研究主管葉捷賢相信，項目將會包括長建夥拍電能參與競投的澳洲電網公司（Ausgrid），估計可能於8月會有結果，屆時適逢上市公司公布半年業績，電能或會視乎競投結果而再作派特別股息的決定。葉捷賢目前仍然較看好長建多於電能，預期前者較後者有更多併購機會，同時長建持有電能近40%股份，能受惠電能任何合併收購機會。

大和早前估計，因應收購金額較大，故長建邀請電能以及李嘉誠基金會一同競投澳洲電網，假設長建與電能各佔40%股權，當中40%收購代價由發債支付，推算長建的投資額為139億元，相信有關投資將是決定電能派特別股息的重要因素。另外，摩根士丹利對電能不派特別股息感到失望，但預期股價不會顯著受壓，因管理層會繼續尋找收購機會。

小股東失望仍表信心

出席電能股東會的小股東林先生表示，對於不派特別股息有少許失望，但對電能未來發展仍然有信心：「董事局可能有未來發展計劃，由他們決定。」被問及電能是否變了質，他說，新一代管理層可能「孤寒」一些，不過他會對電能保持樂觀態度，公司還有數百億元在手，有不少投資機會，而等待投資機會需要資金，若全部派給股東就「冇意思」。

The responsibilities of the managers is to act as the shareholders' agents and to maximise the return of their shareholders. If the potential acquisition is OK, a rational shareholder should support the management professionals to do so because managers can utilise their moneys smarter than the individual shareholders.

If you trust the managers, let them hold and use the cashes. If you dun trust them, how come you invest in them and their company at the outset?

However, I like 1038 more than 6. how about you?

6 is a typical cash cow, it generates large amount of cash inflow. The difficulties of its managers are how to maximise the investment return of the pool of money. It is not always means that holding more money is better. Sometimes, too much idle cash will motivate the managers to make bad decisions. Be careful.

3988's aeroplane rental business

The development of the rumours in the past few days seems that every bit is ready for 3988 to spin off its aeroplane rental business in coming weeks -- maybe week!.

I don't know and wondering when the Cheung Kong Hutchison will spin off its aeroplane rental business ar?!


【新股追蹤】中銀航空租賃42元招股籌87億

放大圖片
中國銀行(03988)分拆旗下中銀航空租賃上市定出招股價，每股招股價42元，發行2.082億股，集資87.45億元。

中銀航空租賃計劃發售2.082億股，新股及中行出售的舊股各佔一半，合共佔中銀航空租賃已發行股份總數約30%。

倘超額配股權獲全數行使，發售股份數目將達2.394億股，中行出售舊股數目增至1.353億股，合共佔已發行股份總數約34.5%，集資總額100.56億元。

中銀航空租賃的市值將為約291.48億元。招股完成後，中行持股量降至約70%，若超額配股權全數行使，持股量降至約65.5%。

中銀航空租賃是次上市集資所得資金將用於購買新飛機及補充營運資金。截至去年末，公司已承諾購買的241架飛機中，74架已承諾租賃。

中銀航空租賃去年收入10.91億美元，盈利3.43億美元，分別按年增長10.4%及11.3%。去年底，機隊總數270架，包括227架自有飛機及43架代管飛機。

3988's aeroplane rental business has unique advantage compared to other competitors -- being a branch business of a large bank. 3988 is able to raise a lot savings and idling money from the citizens at low cost. And rental business is quite capital intensive, Bingo, 3988 feeds its aeroplane rental business by supplying low cost money, perfect supplementary businesses.

The investment potential of the aeroplane business may not be of explosive, Rather, it is a constant cash inflow business. It is relatively low risk in my point of view. Except those unpredictable issues like air aeroplane accident or large scale decrease in demand of aeroplanes (e.g. sudden decrease of travellers, shrinking of trading and thus demand of air delivery etc), I heard that this business can generate at least 10% profit per year.


Are you interested in investing a steady but safe company?

Change management discussions

Nowadays, organizations are doing much to cope with the uncertainties and volatility. That means they face changes frequently and during their daily routine.

Companies are trying to improve their forecasting and increase their agility. But these tactics have limitations. Forecasts quickly become obsolete, and perfect flexibility is costly to achieve -- if not impossible.

What can the companies do to improve their reactions?

It is suggested that organisations should complement their efforts with "strategic" options that serve as a hedge against uncertainties (i.e. change). These include temporary organisations, exploratory acquisitions, and disposable or modular factories.

In the midst of the course of implementation, there will be many challenges. For example, persuading employees that the long term benefit of the options outweigh their high short term cost. Moreover, Building skills -- for instance, in acquiring and integrating acquisitions. Lastly, the changing of forecasting culture and focusing more on understanding risks.It requires a cultural change, from time to time, to effect the changes done. And we need to refreeze after any change anyway.

Reading the argument here is well set up and makes perfect sense. The question is how to realise the theoretical benefits in the change process. It said much about "What should we do". However, the main question manager wants to tackle now is "How can we do that, do those..."

Any pragmatic suggestions or ideas?

Apple announced 2016 Q2 results

蘋果iPhone銷售首跌 股價挫逾6%

蘋果公布上季業績，淨利潤下跌22.5%，也一如市場預料，首度披露iPhone銷售倒退。

消息公布後，蘋果股價在市後時段急跌6.6%，周二收市跌0.7%。

集團指出，截至3月26日止第二季度，淨利潤為105.2億美元(820.56億港元)，去年同期為135.7億美元。每股盈利1.9美元，收入倒退13%至505.5億美元；湯森路透綜合市場預期平均值分別為2美元與519.7億美元。這也是自2003年以來，蘋果首度錄得收入按年減少。

蘋果披露，首季iPhone銷量為5119萬部，按年跌16.3%，是該款智能手機自2007年推出以來，首度錄得按年倒退，但仍較分析員估計的5040萬部佳。不過，每部平均售價只有641美元，低於估計的658美元。

該公司預期，本季收入介乎410至430億美元，低於分析員估計的473億美元；邊際毛利率介乎37.5%至38%，低於分析員估計的39.3%。

蘋果行政總裁庫克接受《華爾街日報》訪問時表示，上季是具挑戰性的一季，因為iPhone銷售難與去年同期相比，原因是去年同期有iPhone 6與6 Plus的強勁銷情。

Investment potential of NO. 6 Power Asset

根據《信報》研究部在網上發表的資料顯示，電能實業(00006)裂口跌穿上升通道底及50天線，表現跑輸恒指，料有機會下試成交量密集區及200天線約73元。

給果參考EJFQ.com FA+的資料，綜合11個分析員預測，其2016年及2017年的每股盈利按年增長分別為-5.9%及1.5%，預測巿盈率為20.9倍，估值昂貴。

6 仔有機會派發特別股息，大約可以每股汦幾元，這是它吸引的地方，但業務前景只有持平已經很好了，你買之前要有心理準備先好。這是一隻純種的收息股，你有耐性嗎？

其實6仔都有動作架啦，它會和長江基建收購一些HUSKY石油的管道資產，用左少少現金。

我相信我們會見到更多 6 號你的收購消息。

How to cope with change with weak signals?

Today, change management is at the heart of manager's daily jobs.

The challenge is that the future is shaped by non linear changes (i.e. abrupt changes and large scale changes are involved) and chance events. How can we prepare our organisation to respond to these changes?

In a HBR article, it is argued that companies have to recognise the weak signals that herald important changes to the business and identify the opportunities they present.

There must then develop a program of experimentation to distill and scale unpromising ideas. Therefore, organisation can consider some pilot test and small scale implementation at the beginning of the change process. After creating a critical mass and the publication of successful stories, the change initiatives will be implemented much more smoothly, gradually to the whole organization.

The organization must interpret the weak signals as opportunities, as risk, or as both. Another challenge is that the weak signal can be real signals or just noise. It is the manager's responsibilities to separate real changes ahead and those noisy signals.

There are five important questions to be asked. They are as follow:

1. Who will be your customers in the future? What will be their priority?

2. What disruptive technologies might open up new opportunities spaces?

3. Whom will you be competing against in the future, and on what basis?

4. Will your go-to-market approach change fundamentally inn the future?

5. What are the potential regulatory reforms?

Upon your answering to these questions, you may well aware some new changes or ideas evolved.


Good luck to you -- our everyday manager.

飛機租賃的業務上市了

還記得我書這BLOG說過關於飛機租賃的生意嗎？我還提到中銀同李嘉誠都向這門生意投入資金發展。這些投資近來如何？

中國銀行（03988）旗下從事飛機租賃業務的中銀航空租賃，昨日已展開投資者預路演，暫訂於5月第二周開始招股，下月27日上市。

據保薦人中銀國際撰寫的報告估計，中銀航空租賃的估值介乎42.37億至53.06億美元（約330.49億至413.87億港元）。 中銀航空租賃昨日向投資者發放初步銷售文件。市傳集資額達到了15億美元。

根據中銀月人月竹水放的資料，其後三年的收入是12.03億美元（升10.3　％）； 14.95億美元（升24.3%）和18．65憶美元（升24.7%）

似乎不錯，你有興趣嗎？

如杲中銀現在開始為這業務套現，咁李生又幾時會動手呢？

How a leader should do in modern management?

A real problem in management is that the employees and other stakeholders will look to leaders to make consistent decisions, keep a steady course, and aligned organisation's culture. But the problem is that leaders typically face multiple demands that conflict with one another, and it's a mistake to assume there are cut-and-dried choices.

As per nowadays, strategic paradoxes are essentially dilemmas that cannot be resolved. Tensions usuallyand continually arise between today's needs and tomorrow's (innovation paradoxes), between global and local integration and interests (globalisation paradoxes), and between social missions and financial pressures (obligation paradoxes).

How can we solve the difficult circumstances?

Managers need to shift from an "either/or" mindset to a "both/and" one by seeing the virtues of inconsistency, recognising that resources are not always finite, and embracing change rather than chasing stability. In practical terms, this means nurturing the unique aspects of competing constituencies and strategies while finding ways to unite them.

The theoretical suggestions seems reasonable, but I wonder which CEO in the world can perform as suggested?

Sadly, today's management is change oriented. change management is at the core of the whole thing.

Um... take care of yourself if you are at management level in an organisation.

Sleep tight, bye for now.

Creative job titles

Job titles don't usually generate much excitement. They are printed on business cards, your linkedin accounts and formal introduction of you.

Can the titles do any concrete work in boosting employees' performance? Let's move to see.

It is argued that some creative job titles can boost employees' motivation to perform well and becomes more creative. It can also boost worker's attitude and recruitment. It is found that the retitling of job will attract more talent to apply for the job vacancies.

Some creative job titles are:

Disney park workers is "cast members"; Subway's line worker is "sandwich artists"; Disney's engineers and m multimedia experts are "imagineers". Quite good?!

The most creative job title is this: The receptionist becomes the "Director of first impression". that's real and describes nicely the work of a receptionist.

So good, right?

Can you suggest more? How about Chief Washroom Inspector? Internal auditor of toilet consumables?

These job titles are creative and sometimes self-inflated, But I like them very much.

How about you? Will you ask your boss to retitle your job contents?

You should let him have a inflated and beautiful title first.

OK, time to return to work la, enjoy your working life.

Will say more on other topics if I am free later

Potential investments

The market situation is neither good nor bad.

You can't say the market or economy is bad but you can't say it's good either.

US is continuing its QE, China is struggling to maintain the momentum of its economy to about 6.5% to 7% growth inGDP.

I would recommend that the first rule is avoid losing of your principle, and the second rule is not to forget rule 1. <-- Haha, you are right, these are from Buffett. I recommend the following five categories of shares, let's hope them perform well: 1. Software or application companies, like games manufacturer, iOS and android apps, big data analysis etc. 2. the leader of industries. Particularly, the leader who has grasped firmly the pricing of the industry. 3. growth shares, I mean the annual l growth exceeds 20% and for a few years 4. some "safe?" shares like public utilities in the recession 5. health care services and drug manufacturers providers What is your view? I am waiting for the better prices to buy some of them, how do you think? Please comment and teach me. Good luck.

Market outlook -- figures

HSI 半日的表現如下：

恒生指數 21,300.65 139.15 國企指數 9,165.52 74.67 上證指數 3,035.09 1.43
幾個指數都向上，表現唔錯。


隔晚美股造好，道指九個月來首次重上萬八點，帶動亞太股市上升，

日股半日大幅反彈逾500點，但中港股市相對落後，只是上升了百多點。

恒指高開276點，報21438點屬半日高，其後未能升穿上周造出的21511點的逾三個月高位，升勢漸漸回落，升幅一度收窄至100點見21261點暫時低。恒指中午收報21286點，升124點或0.6%，大市成交額337.94億元。

國企指數中午收報9156點，升65點或0.7%。

A股半日反覆靠穩，滬指半日升0.05%；深指升0.07%。

藍籌金融股領漲，當中滙控(00005)曾見50.7元逾一個月高，半日升2.7%為表現最好藍籌；本周將公布季績的友邦(01299)升1%；工行(01398)升1.2%；建行(00939)升0.8%。「三桶油」稍為回升，半日漲1%至1.9%。濠賭股亦向上，金沙(01928)升1.7%；銀娛(00027)升1.4%。相反重磅股騰訊(00700)和中移動(00941)跌1.2%和0.7%。

焦點板塊
資源股：多股跑出，大宗商品龍頭嘉能可(00805)升3.1%；江西銅(00358)升2%；中國忠旺(01333)升2%。鋼鐵股見支持，重慶鋼鐵(01053)簽訂立來料加工協議，半日急升6.6%；馬鋼(00323)升2.8%；鞍鋼(00347)升2.2%。

食品及飲品製造股：另一彈出板塊，藍籌蒙牛(02319)升1.6%；康師傅(00322)升2.1%。另外雅士利國際(01230)曾升12%，半日升7.5%；中糧控股(00606)升5.6%；中國食品(00506)升2.6%。

焦點股份
廣汽(02238)：發盈喜料首季多賺逾兩倍，股價曾見9.35元逾一年高，半日升3.2%報8.98元，半日成交額2.28億元為逾四個月來最活躍。

御泰中彩(00555)：停牌逾九個月後，今早復牌，股價裂口低開50.5%，曾跌55.7%見0.195元，半日收報0.255元跌42%，成交額達4.18億元。集團去年6月24日遭沽空機構匿名分析(Anonymous Analytics)指向市場作出虛假陳述，當日中途停牌，昨日發出澄清公告。

今日個市其實好一般，但又買唔到貨，哈哈，我有的是耐性。因為我想要的都是好貨，要有心機等先得架，不放棄。

來投資啦喂！！！！

2628 的季績

今天大和發表了對了2628 和 2601 的報告。

詳情是如下的：

大和降國壽評級 料首季盈利大跌甚至虧損

大和資本 中國人壽(02628)

評級：跑贏大市-> 持有

目標價：18元->20元(較上日收報19.74元，潛在升幅1.3%)

中資券商股陸續公布第一季業績，大和資本發表報告，將中國人壽評級由「跑贏大市」下調至「持有」，目標價剛上調11%至20元，預期公司首季純利大跌，甚至有機會錄得虧損。

大和表示，國壽淨投資收益率面對壓力，下調評級以反映預期短期純利存在風險，將未來兩年純利預測下調超過兩成。另外，該行因A股近期復蘇，上調國壽今年盈利預測。

另外，大和資本重申中國太保(02601)「買入」評級，目標價40元不變，維持行業首選。太保首季壽險保費收入和財險收入按年分別增38.1%及6%，太和指保費增長具高質素，又認為收購安信農保帶來協同效益。

現時 2628 的造價大約是19 個幾，和大和的目標價是一樣的，無什麼吸引之處，但如果佢回到17 或是 18元月的話，便有值搏的理由，笗意住吧。

以及 2601 及 2628 的資料作比較，我是較為喜歡 2628 的，希望它不要令我跌眼鏡啒。

大家一起投資吧！！！

你又有什麼心水？？？？

Kurt Lewin's three step model of change -- elaborated

It is quite plain and natural to cite Lewin's work when we are discussing change management.

In the original version, Lewin broke the change process down into three phrases, i.e. the unfreeze, move and refreeze. Today's blog illustrates this model with more details. Don't miss.

The three steps model can be broken down and be described as a seven steps model like this:

(1) Diagnose the problem -- unfreeze

(2) assess the motivation and capacity for change -- unfreeze

(3) Assess the motivation, resources and commitment of change agent -- unfreeze

(4)choose progressive change object and develop to-do lists and strategy -- move

(5) select and clarify the role and responsibilities of the change agent -- move

(6) uphold change through communication, coordination and feedback -- refreeze

(7) progressively let go of the helping relationship where the change agents withdraw their responsibilities and the change is integrated into the culture of the organization -- refreeze

You may see that this seven steps model is only a detailed version of Lewin's three steps model of change, no surprise. But it can act as a checklist of actions in the change process.

I will keep the above materials for future reference, are you a potential change agent in your organization? Equip yourself now la~

Good luck and healthy!

從F-Score尋質優股

This post is related to the application of the Piotroski F-Score to pick up some potential investments.

First, we should list all the criteria:

(1) ROA > 0

(2) Cash flow from operation, CFO, >0

(3) ROA increasing

(4) CFO > NI

(5) LT debt to total asset decreasing

(6) current ratio increasing

(7) No share outstanding increasing

(8) gross margin increasing

(9) Asset turnover increasing.

Basing on these criteria, A list of high F-score shares are filtered out:

-- 0014

-- 0468

-- 0551

-- 1044

-- 1347

-- 1883

-- 1968

-- 2314

-- 2331

These shares scored 8 or above in the tests.

Amongst these, I personally like the 14 and 2314 most. Maybe 2331 will have a rebound this year, but i have reservation on it

How about you?

Let's review the performance a year later.