農行首季盈利升1%至546億人幣
農業銀行(01288)公布今年第一季業績，期內歸屬於母公司股東的淨利潤546.88億元(人民幣‧下同)，按年增長1.06%，每股盈利0.16元。
另外，期內營業收入1390.3億元，按年下跌1.15%；其中，淨利息收入1017.04億元，下降7.07%；手續費及佣金淨收入289.18億元，增長7.19%，主要是由於代理業務手續費收入和電子銀行業務收入增長較快。
客戶貸款及墊款總額9.26萬億元，較去年末增加3511.55億元，增長3.94%；其中，公司類貸款約5.64萬億元，個人貸款2.88萬億元，票據貼現3335.81億元，境外及其他貸款4057.15億元。投資證券及其他金融資產淨額4.81萬億元，較去年末增長6.54%。
截至3月底，不良貸款餘額2216.23億元，較去年末增加87.56億元；不良貸款率2.39%，與去年末持平。撥備覆蓋率180.43%，較去年末下降9個百分點。
同時，期末核心一級資本充足率為10.21%，較去年底下跌0.03個百分點，而一級資本充足率及資本充足率，分別為10.9%及13.11%，較去年底下跌0.06個及0.29個百分點。
要小心的是一級資本充足率及資本充足率，分別為10.9%及13.11%，較去年底下跌0.06個及0.29個百分點。
如果無改善的話，分分鐘要集資都唔定。
Thursday, April 28, 2016
Change management discussions
Nowadays, organizations are doing much to cope with the uncertainties and volatility. That means they face changes frequently and during their daily routine.
Companies are trying to improve their forecasting and increase their agility. But these tactics have limitations. Forecasts quickly become obsolete, and perfect flexibility is costly to achieve -- if not impossible.
What can the companies do to improve their reactions?
It is suggested that organisations should complement their efforts with "strategic" options that serve as a hedge against uncertainties (i.e. change). These include temporary organisations, exploratory acquisitions, and disposable or modular factories.
In the midst of the course of implementation, there will be many challenges. For example, persuading employees that the long term benefit of the options outweigh their high short term cost. Moreover, Building skills -- for instance, in acquiring and integrating acquisitions. Lastly, the changing of forecasting culture and focusing more on understanding risks.It requires a cultural change, from time to time, to effect the changes done. And we need to refreeze after any change anyway.
Reading the argument here is well set up and makes perfect sense. The question is how to realise the theoretical benefits in the change process. It said much about "What should we do". However, the main question manager wants to tackle now is "How can we do that, do those..."
Any pragmatic suggestions or ideas?
Companies are trying to improve their forecasting and increase their agility. But these tactics have limitations. Forecasts quickly become obsolete, and perfect flexibility is costly to achieve -- if not impossible.
What can the companies do to improve their reactions?
It is suggested that organisations should complement their efforts with "strategic" options that serve as a hedge against uncertainties (i.e. change). These include temporary organisations, exploratory acquisitions, and disposable or modular factories.
In the midst of the course of implementation, there will be many challenges. For example, persuading employees that the long term benefit of the options outweigh their high short term cost. Moreover, Building skills -- for instance, in acquiring and integrating acquisitions. Lastly, the changing of forecasting culture and focusing more on understanding risks.It requires a cultural change, from time to time, to effect the changes done. And we need to refreeze after any change anyway.
Reading the argument here is well set up and makes perfect sense. The question is how to realise the theoretical benefits in the change process. It said much about "What should we do". However, the main question manager wants to tackle now is "How can we do that, do those..."
Any pragmatic suggestions or ideas?
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Apple announced 2016 Q2 results
蘋果iPhone銷售首跌 股價挫逾6%
蘋果公布上季業績，淨利潤下跌22.5%，也一如市場預料，首度披露iPhone銷售倒退。
消息公布後，蘋果股價在市後時段急跌6.6%，周二收市跌0.7%。
集團指出，截至3月26日止第二季度，淨利潤為105.2億美元(820.56億港元)，去年同期為135.7億美元。每股盈利1.9美元，收入倒退13%至505.5億美元；湯森路透綜合市場預期平均值分別為2美元與519.7億美元。這也是自2003年以來，蘋果首度錄得收入按年減少。
蘋果披露，首季iPhone銷量為5119萬部，按年跌16.3%，是該款智能手機自2007年推出以來，首度錄得按年倒退，但仍較分析員估計的5040萬部佳。不過，每部平均售價只有641美元，低於估計的658美元。
該公司預期，本季收入介乎410至430億美元，低於分析員估計的473億美元；邊際毛利率介乎37.5%至38%，低於分析員估計的39.3%。
蘋果行政總裁庫克接受《華爾街日報》訪問時表示，上季是具挑戰性的一季，因為iPhone銷售難與去年同期相比，原因是去年同期有iPhone 6與6 Plus的強勁銷情。
蘋果公布上季業績，淨利潤下跌22.5%，也一如市場預料，首度披露iPhone銷售倒退。
消息公布後，蘋果股價在市後時段急跌6.6%，周二收市跌0.7%。
集團指出，截至3月26日止第二季度，淨利潤為105.2億美元(820.56億港元)，去年同期為135.7億美元。每股盈利1.9美元，收入倒退13%至505.5億美元；湯森路透綜合市場預期平均值分別為2美元與519.7億美元。這也是自2003年以來，蘋果首度錄得收入按年減少。
蘋果披露，首季iPhone銷量為5119萬部，按年跌16.3%，是該款智能手機自2007年推出以來，首度錄得按年倒退，但仍較分析員估計的5040萬部佳。不過，每部平均售價只有641美元，低於估計的658美元。
該公司預期，本季收入介乎410至430億美元，低於分析員估計的473億美元；邊際毛利率介乎37.5%至38%，低於分析員估計的39.3%。
蘋果行政總裁庫克接受《華爾街日報》訪問時表示，上季是具挑戰性的一季，因為iPhone銷售難與去年同期相比，原因是去年同期有iPhone 6與6 Plus的強勁銷情。
Investment potential of NO. 6 Power Asset
根據《信報》研究部在網上發表的資料顯示，電能實業(00006)裂口跌穿上升通道底及50天線，表現跑輸恒指，料有機會下試成交量密集區及200天線約73元。
給果參考EJFQ.com FA+的資料，綜合11個分析員預測，其2016年及2017年的每股盈利按年增長分別為-5.9%及1.5%，預測巿盈率為20.9倍，估值昂貴。
6 仔有機會派發特別股息，大約可以每股汦幾元，這是它吸引的地方，但業務前景只有持平已經很好了，你買之前要有心理準備先好。這是一隻純種的收息股，你有耐性嗎？
其實6仔都有動作架啦，它會和長江基建收購一些HUSKY石油的管道資產，用左少少現金。
我相信我們會見到更多 6 號你的收購消息。
給果參考EJFQ.com FA+的資料，綜合11個分析員預測，其2016年及2017年的每股盈利按年增長分別為-5.9%及1.5%，預測巿盈率為20.9倍，估值昂貴。
6 仔有機會派發特別股息，大約可以每股汦幾元，這是它吸引的地方，但業務前景只有持平已經很好了，你買之前要有心理準備先好。這是一隻純種的收息股，你有耐性嗎？
其實6仔都有動作架啦，它會和長江基建收購一些HUSKY石油的管道資產，用左少少現金。
我相信我們會見到更多 6 號你的收購消息。
How to cope with change with weak signals?
Today, change management is at the heart of manager's daily jobs.
The challenge is that the future is shaped by non linear changes (i.e. abrupt changes and large scale changes are involved) and chance events. How can we prepare our organisation to respond to these changes?
In a HBR article, it is argued that companies have to recognise the weak signals that herald important changes to the business and identify the opportunities they present.
There must then develop a program of experimentation to distill and scale unpromising ideas. Therefore, organisation can consider some pilot test and small scale implementation at the beginning of the change process. After creating a critical mass and the publication of successful stories, the change initiatives will be implemented much more smoothly, gradually to the whole organization.
The organization must interpret the weak signals as opportunities, as risk, or as both. Another challenge is that the weak signal can be real signals or just noise. It is the manager's responsibilities to separate real changes ahead and those noisy signals.
There are five important questions to be asked. They are as follow:
1. Who will be your customers in the future? What will be their priority?
2. What disruptive technologies might open up new opportunities spaces?
3. Whom will you be competing against in the future, and on what basis?
4. Will your go-to-market approach change fundamentally inn the future?
5. What are the potential regulatory reforms?
Upon your answering to these questions, you may well aware some new changes or ideas evolved.
Good luck to you -- our everyday manager.
The challenge is that the future is shaped by non linear changes (i.e. abrupt changes and large scale changes are involved) and chance events. How can we prepare our organisation to respond to these changes?
In a HBR article, it is argued that companies have to recognise the weak signals that herald important changes to the business and identify the opportunities they present.
There must then develop a program of experimentation to distill and scale unpromising ideas. Therefore, organisation can consider some pilot test and small scale implementation at the beginning of the change process. After creating a critical mass and the publication of successful stories, the change initiatives will be implemented much more smoothly, gradually to the whole organization.
The organization must interpret the weak signals as opportunities, as risk, or as both. Another challenge is that the weak signal can be real signals or just noise. It is the manager's responsibilities to separate real changes ahead and those noisy signals.
There are five important questions to be asked. They are as follow:
1. Who will be your customers in the future? What will be their priority?
2. What disruptive technologies might open up new opportunities spaces?
3. Whom will you be competing against in the future, and on what basis?
4. Will your go-to-market approach change fundamentally inn the future?
5. What are the potential regulatory reforms?
Upon your answering to these questions, you may well aware some new changes or ideas evolved.
Good luck to you -- our everyday manager.
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
飛機租賃的業務上市了
還記得我書這BLOG說過關於飛機租賃的生意嗎？我還提到中銀同李嘉誠都向這門生意投入資金發展。這些投資近來如何？
中國銀行（03988）旗下從事飛機租賃業務的中銀航空租賃，昨日已展開投資者預路演，暫訂於5月第二周開始招股，下月27日上市。
據保薦人中銀國際撰寫的報告估計，中銀航空租賃的估值介乎42.37億至53.06億美元（約330.49億至413.87億港元）。 中銀航空租賃昨日向投資者發放初步銷售文件。市傳集資額達到了15億美元。
根據中銀月人月竹水放的資料，其後三年的收入是12.03億美元（升10.3 ％）； 14.95億美元（升24.3%）和18．65憶美元（升24.7%）
似乎不錯，你有興趣嗎？
如杲中銀現在開始為這業務套現，咁李生又幾時會動手呢？
中國銀行（03988）旗下從事飛機租賃業務的中銀航空租賃，昨日已展開投資者預路演，暫訂於5月第二周開始招股，下月27日上市。
據保薦人中銀國際撰寫的報告估計，中銀航空租賃的估值介乎42.37億至53.06億美元（約330.49億至413.87億港元）。 中銀航空租賃昨日向投資者發放初步銷售文件。市傳集資額達到了15億美元。
根據中銀月人月竹水放的資料，其後三年的收入是12.03億美元（升10.3 ％）； 14.95億美元（升24.3%）和18．65憶美元（升24.7%）
似乎不錯，你有興趣嗎？
如杲中銀現在開始為這業務套現，咁李生又幾時會動手呢？
Monday, April 25, 2016
How a leader should do in modern management?
A real problem in management is that the employees and other stakeholders will look to leaders to make consistent decisions, keep a steady course, and aligned organisation's culture. But the problem is that leaders typically face multiple demands that conflict with one another, and it's a mistake to assume there are cut-and-dried choices.
As per nowadays, strategic paradoxes are essentially dilemmas that cannot be resolved. Tensions usuallyand continually arise between today's needs and tomorrow's (innovation paradoxes), between global and local integration and interests (globalisation paradoxes), and between social missions and financial pressures (obligation paradoxes).
How can we solve the difficult circumstances?
Managers need to shift from an "either/or" mindset to a "both/and" one by seeing the virtues of inconsistency, recognising that resources are not always finite, and embracing change rather than chasing stability. In practical terms, this means nurturing the unique aspects of competing constituencies and strategies while finding ways to unite them.
The theoretical suggestions seems reasonable, but I wonder which CEO in the world can perform as suggested?
Sadly, today's management is change oriented. change management is at the core of the whole thing.
Um... take care of yourself if you are at management level in an organisation.
Sleep tight, bye for now.
As per nowadays, strategic paradoxes are essentially dilemmas that cannot be resolved. Tensions usuallyand continually arise between today's needs and tomorrow's (innovation paradoxes), between global and local integration and interests (globalisation paradoxes), and between social missions and financial pressures (obligation paradoxes).
How can we solve the difficult circumstances?
Managers need to shift from an "either/or" mindset to a "both/and" one by seeing the virtues of inconsistency, recognising that resources are not always finite, and embracing change rather than chasing stability. In practical terms, this means nurturing the unique aspects of competing constituencies and strategies while finding ways to unite them.
The theoretical suggestions seems reasonable, but I wonder which CEO in the world can perform as suggested?
Sadly, today's management is change oriented. change management is at the core of the whole thing.
Um... take care of yourself if you are at management level in an organisation.
Sleep tight, bye for now.
Creative job titles
Job titles don't usually generate much excitement. They are printed on business cards, your linkedin accounts and formal introduction of you.
Can the titles do any concrete work in boosting employees' performance? Let's move to see.
It is argued that some creative job titles can boost employees' motivation to perform well and becomes more creative. It can also boost worker's attitude and recruitment. It is found that the retitling of job will attract more talent to apply for the job vacancies.
Some creative job titles are:
Disney park workers is "cast members"; Subway's line worker is "sandwich artists"; Disney's engineers and m multimedia experts are "imagineers". Quite good?!
The most creative job title is this: The receptionist becomes the "Director of first impression". that's real and describes nicely the work of a receptionist.
So good, right?
Can you suggest more? How about Chief Washroom Inspector? Internal auditor of toilet consumables?
These job titles are creative and sometimes self-inflated, But I like them very much.
How about you? Will you ask your boss to retitle your job contents?
You should let him have a inflated and beautiful title first.
OK, time to return to work la, enjoy your working life.
Will say more on other topics if I am free later
Can the titles do any concrete work in boosting employees' performance? Let's move to see.
It is argued that some creative job titles can boost employees' motivation to perform well and becomes more creative. It can also boost worker's attitude and recruitment. It is found that the retitling of job will attract more talent to apply for the job vacancies.
Some creative job titles are:
Disney park workers is "cast members"; Subway's line worker is "sandwich artists"; Disney's engineers and m multimedia experts are "imagineers". Quite good?!
The most creative job title is this: The receptionist becomes the "Director of first impression". that's real and describes nicely the work of a receptionist.
So good, right?
Can you suggest more? How about Chief Washroom Inspector? Internal auditor of toilet consumables?
These job titles are creative and sometimes self-inflated, But I like them very much.
How about you? Will you ask your boss to retitle your job contents?
You should let him have a inflated and beautiful title first.
OK, time to return to work la, enjoy your working life.
Will say more on other topics if I am free later
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Potential investments
The market situation is neither good nor bad.
You can't say the market or economy is bad but you can't say it's good either.
US is continuing its QE, China is struggling to maintain the momentum of its economy to about 6.5% to 7% growth inGDP.
I would recommend that the first rule is avoid losing of your principle, and the second rule is not to forget rule 1. <-- Haha, you are right, these are from Buffett. I recommend the following five categories of shares, let's hope them perform well: 1. Software or application companies, like games manufacturer, iOS and android apps, big data analysis etc. 2. the leader of industries. Particularly, the leader who has grasped firmly the pricing of the industry. 3. growth shares, I mean the annual l growth exceeds 20% and for a few years 4. some "safe?" shares like public utilities in the recession 5. health care services and drug manufacturers providers What is your view? I am waiting for the better prices to buy some of them, how do you think? Please comment and teach me. Good luck.
You can't say the market or economy is bad but you can't say it's good either.
US is continuing its QE, China is struggling to maintain the momentum of its economy to about 6.5% to 7% growth inGDP.
I would recommend that the first rule is avoid losing of your principle, and the second rule is not to forget rule 1. <-- Haha, you are right, these are from Buffett. I recommend the following five categories of shares, let's hope them perform well: 1. Software or application companies, like games manufacturer, iOS and android apps, big data analysis etc. 2. the leader of industries. Particularly, the leader who has grasped firmly the pricing of the industry. 3. growth shares, I mean the annual l growth exceeds 20% and for a few years 4. some "safe?" shares like public utilities in the recession 5. health care services and drug manufacturers providers What is your view? I am waiting for the better prices to buy some of them, how do you think? Please comment and teach me. Good luck.
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Market outlook -- figures
HSI 半日的表現如下：
恒生指數 21,300.65 139.15 國企指數 9,165.52 74.67 上證指數 3,035.09 1.43
幾個指數都向上，表現唔錯。
隔晚美股造好，道指九個月來首次重上萬八點，帶動亞太股市上升，
日股半日大幅反彈逾500點，但中港股市相對落後，只是上升了百多點。
恒指高開276點，報21438點屬半日高，其後未能升穿上周造出的21511點的逾三個月高位，升勢漸漸回落，升幅一度收窄至100點見21261點暫時低。恒指中午收報21286點，升124點或0.6%，大市成交額337.94億元。
國企指數中午收報9156點，升65點或0.7%。
A股半日反覆靠穩，滬指半日升0.05%；深指升0.07%。
藍籌金融股領漲，當中滙控(00005)曾見50.7元逾一個月高，半日升2.7%為表現最好藍籌；本周將公布季績的友邦(01299)升1%；工行(01398)升1.2%；建行(00939)升0.8%。「三桶油」稍為回升，半日漲1%至1.9%。濠賭股亦向上，金沙(01928)升1.7%；銀娛(00027)升1.4%。相反重磅股騰訊(00700)和中移動(00941)跌1.2%和0.7%。
焦點板塊
資源股：多股跑出，大宗商品龍頭嘉能可(00805)升3.1%；江西銅(00358)升2%；中國忠旺(01333)升2%。鋼鐵股見支持，重慶鋼鐵(01053)簽訂立來料加工協議，半日急升6.6%；馬鋼(00323)升2.8%；鞍鋼(00347)升2.2%。
食品及飲品製造股：另一彈出板塊，藍籌蒙牛(02319)升1.6%；康師傅(00322)升2.1%。另外雅士利國際(01230)曾升12%，半日升7.5%；中糧控股(00606)升5.6%；中國食品(00506)升2.6%。
焦點股份
廣汽(02238)：發盈喜料首季多賺逾兩倍，股價曾見9.35元逾一年高，半日升3.2%報8.98元，半日成交額2.28億元為逾四個月來最活躍。
御泰中彩(00555)：停牌逾九個月後，今早復牌，股價裂口低開50.5%，曾跌55.7%見0.195元，半日收報0.255元跌42%，成交額達4.18億元。集團去年6月24日遭沽空機構匿名分析(Anonymous Analytics)指向市場作出虛假陳述，當日中途停牌，昨日發出澄清公告。
今日個市其實好一般，但又買唔到貨，哈哈，我有的是耐性。因為我想要的都是好貨，要有心機等先得架，不放棄。
來投資啦喂！！！！
恒生指數 21,300.65 139.15 國企指數 9,165.52 74.67 上證指數 3,035.09 1.43
幾個指數都向上，表現唔錯。
隔晚美股造好，道指九個月來首次重上萬八點，帶動亞太股市上升，
日股半日大幅反彈逾500點，但中港股市相對落後，只是上升了百多點。
恒指高開276點，報21438點屬半日高，其後未能升穿上周造出的21511點的逾三個月高位，升勢漸漸回落，升幅一度收窄至100點見21261點暫時低。恒指中午收報21286點，升124點或0.6%，大市成交額337.94億元。
國企指數中午收報9156點，升65點或0.7%。
A股半日反覆靠穩，滬指半日升0.05%；深指升0.07%。
藍籌金融股領漲，當中滙控(00005)曾見50.7元逾一個月高，半日升2.7%為表現最好藍籌；本周將公布季績的友邦(01299)升1%；工行(01398)升1.2%；建行(00939)升0.8%。「三桶油」稍為回升，半日漲1%至1.9%。濠賭股亦向上，金沙(01928)升1.7%；銀娛(00027)升1.4%。相反重磅股騰訊(00700)和中移動(00941)跌1.2%和0.7%。
焦點板塊
資源股：多股跑出，大宗商品龍頭嘉能可(00805)升3.1%；江西銅(00358)升2%；中國忠旺(01333)升2%。鋼鐵股見支持，重慶鋼鐵(01053)簽訂立來料加工協議，半日急升6.6%；馬鋼(00323)升2.8%；鞍鋼(00347)升2.2%。
食品及飲品製造股：另一彈出板塊，藍籌蒙牛(02319)升1.6%；康師傅(00322)升2.1%。另外雅士利國際(01230)曾升12%，半日升7.5%；中糧控股(00606)升5.6%；中國食品(00506)升2.6%。
焦點股份
廣汽(02238)：發盈喜料首季多賺逾兩倍，股價曾見9.35元逾一年高，半日升3.2%報8.98元，半日成交額2.28億元為逾四個月來最活躍。
御泰中彩(00555)：停牌逾九個月後，今早復牌，股價裂口低開50.5%，曾跌55.7%見0.195元，半日收報0.255元跌42%，成交額達4.18億元。集團去年6月24日遭沽空機構匿名分析(Anonymous Analytics)指向市場作出虛假陳述，當日中途停牌，昨日發出澄清公告。
今日個市其實好一般，但又買唔到貨，哈哈，我有的是耐性。因為我想要的都是好貨，要有心機等先得架，不放棄。
來投資啦喂！！！！
Monday, April 18, 2016
China's economy
剛在綱上看到大唐發電首季發電量按年跌9.42%的消息。如下：
大唐發電(00991)公布，該集團第一季已累計完成發電量約359.53億千瓦時，按年減少約9.42%；累計完成上網電量約340.21億千瓦時，減少約9.28%。
受全國電力供需總體寬鬆以及該集團火電機組所在區域電網利用小時下降的影響，火電機組發電量按年降低約13.79%，上網電量降低約13.89%。
因該集團水電機組總來水量增加等因素的影響，水電機組發電量按年增加42.42%，上網電量增加42.94%；此外，亦因風電機組容量增加及所在區域平均風速提高等因素影響，風電機組發電量加6.7%，上網電量增加6.68%。
另外，因光伏發電機組容量增加，光伏機組發電量按年增加約10.94%，上網電量則增加11.41%。
其實我無買這隻股票，我亦住打算睇佢。但係弓中弓竹水電量就和經濟有很大的關係。
試想想，做生意是要打開門的，電弔就更加是打開口做生意的必然成本。辦公室要開燈，工廠又要運作，在在需要電這東西，所以有生意做就要鶢電，用更多的電。
現在991 的表現清楚的告訴了我們，經濟不是很有活力，經濟成長率和活動也不活躍。
小心小心。
但有危才有機，繼續賺大錢！YEAH！！！
大唐發電(00991)公布，該集團第一季已累計完成發電量約359.53億千瓦時，按年減少約9.42%；累計完成上網電量約340.21億千瓦時，減少約9.28%。
受全國電力供需總體寬鬆以及該集團火電機組所在區域電網利用小時下降的影響，火電機組發電量按年降低約13.79%，上網電量降低約13.89%。
因該集團水電機組總來水量增加等因素的影響，水電機組發電量按年增加42.42%，上網電量增加42.94%；此外，亦因風電機組容量增加及所在區域平均風速提高等因素影響，風電機組發電量加6.7%，上網電量增加6.68%。
另外，因光伏發電機組容量增加，光伏機組發電量按年增加約10.94%，上網電量則增加11.41%。
其實我無買這隻股票，我亦住打算睇佢。但係弓中弓竹水電量就和經濟有很大的關係。
試想想，做生意是要打開門的，電弔就更加是打開口做生意的必然成本。辦公室要開燈，工廠又要運作，在在需要電這東西，所以有生意做就要鶢電，用更多的電。
現在991 的表現清楚的告訴了我們，經濟不是很有活力，經濟成長率和活動也不活躍。
小心小心。
但有危才有機，繼續賺大錢！YEAH！！！
2628 的季績
今天大和發表了對了2628 和 2601 的報告。
詳情是如下的：
大和降國壽評級 料首季盈利大跌甚至虧損
大和資本 中國人壽(02628)
評級：跑贏大市-> 持有
目標價：18元->20元(較上日收報19.74元，潛在升幅1.3%)
中資券商股陸續公布第一季業績，大和資本發表報告，將中國人壽評級由「跑贏大市」下調至「持有」，目標價剛上調11%至20元，預期公司首季純利大跌，甚至有機會錄得虧損。
大和表示，國壽淨投資收益率面對壓力，下調評級以反映預期短期純利存在風險，將未來兩年純利預測下調超過兩成。另外，該行因A股近期復蘇，上調國壽今年盈利預測。
另外，大和資本重申中國太保(02601)「買入」評級，目標價40元不變，維持行業首選。太保首季壽險保費收入和財險收入按年分別增38.1%及6%，太和指保費增長具高質素，又認為收購安信農保帶來協同效益。
現時 2628 的造價大約是19 個幾，和大和的目標價是一樣的，無什麼吸引之處，但如果佢回到17 或是 18元月的話，便有值搏的理由，笗意住吧。
以及 2601 及 2628 的資料作比較，我是較為喜歡 2628 的，希望它不要令我跌眼鏡啒。
大家一起投資吧！！！
你又有什麼心水？？？？
詳情是如下的：
大和降國壽評級 料首季盈利大跌甚至虧損
大和資本 中國人壽(02628)
評級：跑贏大市-> 持有
目標價：18元->20元(較上日收報19.74元，潛在升幅1.3%)
中資券商股陸續公布第一季業績，大和資本發表報告，將中國人壽評級由「跑贏大市」下調至「持有」，目標價剛上調11%至20元，預期公司首季純利大跌，甚至有機會錄得虧損。
大和表示，國壽淨投資收益率面對壓力，下調評級以反映預期短期純利存在風險，將未來兩年純利預測下調超過兩成。另外，該行因A股近期復蘇，上調國壽今年盈利預測。
另外，大和資本重申中國太保(02601)「買入」評級，目標價40元不變，維持行業首選。太保首季壽險保費收入和財險收入按年分別增38.1%及6%，太和指保費增長具高質素，又認為收購安信農保帶來協同效益。
現時 2628 的造價大約是19 個幾，和大和的目標價是一樣的，無什麼吸引之處，但如果佢回到17 或是 18元月的話，便有值搏的理由，笗意住吧。
以及 2601 及 2628 的資料作比較，我是較為喜歡 2628 的，希望它不要令我跌眼鏡啒。
大家一起投資吧！！！
你又有什麼心水？？？？
Sunday, April 17, 2016
Kurt Lewin's three step model of change -- elaborated
It is quite plain and natural to cite Lewin's work when we are discussing change management.
In the original version, Lewin broke the change process down into three phrases, i.e. the unfreeze, move and refreeze. Today's blog illustrates this model with more details. Don't miss.
The three steps model can be broken down and be described as a seven steps model like this:
(1) Diagnose the problem -- unfreeze
(2) assess the motivation and capacity for change -- unfreeze
(3) Assess the motivation, resources and commitment of change agent -- unfreeze
(4)choose progressive change object and develop to-do lists and strategy -- move
(5) select and clarify the role and responsibilities of the change agent -- move
(6) uphold change through communication, coordination and feedback -- refreeze
(7) progressively let go of the helping relationship where the change agents withdraw their responsibilities and the change is integrated into the culture of the organization -- refreeze
You may see that this seven steps model is only a detailed version of Lewin's three steps model of change, no surprise. But it can act as a checklist of actions in the change process.
I will keep the above materials for future reference, are you a potential change agent in your organization? Equip yourself now la~
Good luck and healthy!
In the original version, Lewin broke the change process down into three phrases, i.e. the unfreeze, move and refreeze. Today's blog illustrates this model with more details. Don't miss.
The three steps model can be broken down and be described as a seven steps model like this:
(1) Diagnose the problem -- unfreeze
(2) assess the motivation and capacity for change -- unfreeze
(3) Assess the motivation, resources and commitment of change agent -- unfreeze
(4)choose progressive change object and develop to-do lists and strategy -- move
(5) select and clarify the role and responsibilities of the change agent -- move
(6) uphold change through communication, coordination and feedback -- refreeze
(7) progressively let go of the helping relationship where the change agents withdraw their responsibilities and the change is integrated into the culture of the organization -- refreeze
You may see that this seven steps model is only a detailed version of Lewin's three steps model of change, no surprise. But it can act as a checklist of actions in the change process.
I will keep the above materials for future reference, are you a potential change agent in your organization? Equip yourself now la~
Good luck and healthy!
Thursday, April 14, 2016
從F-Score尋質優股
This post is related to the application of the Piotroski F-Score to pick up some potential investments.
First, we should list all the criteria:
(1) ROA > 0
(2) Cash flow from operation, CFO, >0
(3) ROA increasing
(4) CFO > NI
(5) LT debt to total asset decreasing
(6) current ratio increasing
(7) No share outstanding increasing
(8) gross margin increasing
(9) Asset turnover increasing.
Basing on these criteria, A list of high F-score shares are filtered out:
-- 0014
-- 0468
-- 0551
-- 1044
-- 1347
-- 1883
-- 1968
-- 2314
-- 2331
These shares scored 8 or above in the tests.
Amongst these, I personally like the 14 and 2314 most. Maybe 2331 will have a rebound this year, but i have reservation on it
How about you?
Let's review the performance a year later.
First, we should list all the criteria:
(1) ROA > 0
(2) Cash flow from operation, CFO, >0
(3) ROA increasing
(4) CFO > NI
(5) LT debt to total asset decreasing
(6) current ratio increasing
(7) No share outstanding increasing
(8) gross margin increasing
(9) Asset turnover increasing.
Basing on these criteria, A list of high F-score shares are filtered out:
-- 0014
-- 0468
-- 0551
-- 1044
-- 1347
-- 1883
-- 1968
-- 2314
-- 2331
These shares scored 8 or above in the tests.
Amongst these, I personally like the 14 and 2314 most. Maybe 2331 will have a rebound this year, but i have reservation on it
How about you?
Let's review the performance a year later.
Saturday, April 9, 2016
Vitasoy -- 345
it has been for some time since my previous posting in this blog.
The topic of today is some investment ideas around the share, 345 the Vita Soy, enjoy ^_^.
Vitasoy is a established local brand. It is one of the most famous local brands. It sells vitasoy, lemon tea, vita water, DoFu etc using an umbrella of a wide range of different brands.
Its trading PE is nearly 40 times, and its book to market value is about 8 times. Basing on these figures, 345 is expensive, super expensive.
I like this local brand a lot and i buy its products frequently. I have faith on it, So I keep an eye on it for some possible lower prices to buy in. I am a customer of 345 already. When will I become a shareholder in the near future?
Vitasoy has invested some monies in mainland China. Those are manufacturing factory facilities.
345 wishes to explore the mainland market as well.
In the first half of this FY, the net profits of 345 rose 40%. The company explained that the rise was partly resulted form the dropping raw materials costs,
As an unknown in the future, 345 can't rely on dropping material prices to support the profits, the raw material prices may rebound and squeeze the profit margin in the coming half of the FY, who knows!! In addition, the capital expenditure in the latter half 2015/16 will double that of the former half 2016.
However, the CFO told the media that the group had sold some non core assets to increase the cash level of the company. I believe it has no need to increase debt or to do share placing in the near future.
I will keep an eye on this company continuously, how about you?
Today, 345's market price is HKD 14.58.
Good share but too expensive.
You may also read other article about 345 in this blog. Just go to the directory and search.
The topic of today is some investment ideas around the share, 345 the Vita Soy, enjoy ^_^.
Vitasoy is a established local brand. It is one of the most famous local brands. It sells vitasoy, lemon tea, vita water, DoFu etc using an umbrella of a wide range of different brands.
Its trading PE is nearly 40 times, and its book to market value is about 8 times. Basing on these figures, 345 is expensive, super expensive.
I like this local brand a lot and i buy its products frequently. I have faith on it, So I keep an eye on it for some possible lower prices to buy in. I am a customer of 345 already. When will I become a shareholder in the near future?
Vitasoy has invested some monies in mainland China. Those are manufacturing factory facilities.
345 wishes to explore the mainland market as well.
In the first half of this FY, the net profits of 345 rose 40%. The company explained that the rise was partly resulted form the dropping raw materials costs,
As an unknown in the future, 345 can't rely on dropping material prices to support the profits, the raw material prices may rebound and squeeze the profit margin in the coming half of the FY, who knows!! In addition, the capital expenditure in the latter half 2015/16 will double that of the former half 2016.
However, the CFO told the media that the group had sold some non core assets to increase the cash level of the company. I believe it has no need to increase debt or to do share placing in the near future.
I will keep an eye on this company continuously, how about you?
Today, 345's market price is HKD 14.58.
Good share but too expensive.
You may also read other article about 345 in this blog. Just go to the directory and search.
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